Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia

Drought assessment and trend analysis of precipitation temperature time series are essential in the planning management water resources. Long-term historical records (monthly for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020) used investigate annual drought characteristics Somalia’s northern region. Six indices normal Standardized Precipitation Index (normal-SPI), log (log-SPI), using gamma distribution (Gamma-SPI), Percent Normal (PNI), Discrepancy (DPI), Deciles (DI) this study assessment. The log-SPI, gamma-SPI, PNI, DPI could capture extreme severe droughts that occurred early 1980s over last two decades. results indicate Somalia has gone through extended periods past quarter century, exacerbating existing humanitarian situation. normal-SPI, PNI less moderate conditions, whereas DPI, DI accurately periods; thus, these methods recommended as tools studied Not only correlated each other, but their correlation coefficient (CC) with SPI-based not high which close unity. For purpose analysis, Mann Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) Şen test used. Furthermore, Pettitt is implemented detect change points Thiel-Sen approach estimate magnitude series. there overall warming region experienced a significant shift direction since 2000. data shows Bossaso Garowe stations have positive trends, while Qardho station no trend. In 1997 1998, respectively, abrupt changes detected at stations. Due civil war more than three decades non-institutionalized governance inform conditions country, determining most appropriate meteorological index would help develop monitoring system states entire country.